Sense and Sensibility

Let’s start with the market news today, which is summed up in the Empire State manufacturing index, which purports to show economic conditions for manutfacturers.  Last month it was at 15.58.  This month’s forecast was for 17.1.  The actual number was 12.08.  Bond traders reacted by saying “well, yeah, but the Fed’s going to keep raising rates, so what the heck, let’s keep selling.”  And they did.

And people say economics is confusing.

The weekend was great, thanks for asking, and my little Charlotte turned 4 on Friday.  There’s nothing whatever in the world to compare with the joy of a hug from one of my little girls, unless it’s a hug from one of my wonderful sons.  Or my wife.

But BYU thwacking CSU comes pretty close.  The Cougars unveiled their Bo Schembechler-style running game and just ran over the Rams 24-14.  So my score prediction was wrong but the winner was correct.

The other predictions ALL CAME IN.  Notre Dame lost in the final seconds (by 3, not by 2, and it wasn’t a field goal), we are still #1 on Technorati, the White Sox actually pushed the Angels right over the brink, and the Astros have the Cardinals one game away from the end of their season as well, just as predicted.

So my credibility as an economist is just shot.  You can’t get this much stuff correct and hope to keep any sort of street cred in a field as often incorrect as economics.

I’ll try to do worse this week.

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