First Day of Summer


  • Although it may have felt like it for a long time, today is
    actually the first trading day of summer. Everyone is watching crude
    oil prices, as the Saudis have indicated that they will increase
    production, possibly dramatically, by the end of 2009.
  • Problem with that is, markets were hoping for a bigger increase,
    and Saudi Arabia doesn’t have the kind of crude the world wants. Turns
    out the big producers of light, sweet crude are in Nigeria, Venezuela,
    and – get this – Iraq. Iraq is not entirely back on line yet,
    Venezuela is the home of one of the world’s last real tin-pot
    dictators, and Nigeria is in the middle of a civil war.
  • Markets are pricing in further increases in oil, and waiting for
    the Fed meeting which kicks off tomorrow. The Fed is virtually
    guaranteed not to do anything with rates, but you never know.
  • Bonds, on the open, are absolutely flat. It’s hard to see
    anything moving us dramatically today, given the flood of economic news
    later in the week.

For today, as we usually recommend, if you’re going to buy, buy. Don’t
try to time the market. It’s a fool’s game.



Thanks to those that came to the CJ Group BBQ this last weekend – it
was a hoot and a holler. Nice to meet so many RateWatchers, and we
look forward to seeing you again. And welcome to practically the
entire cast of Draper Arts Council’s You Can’t Take it With You,
a great show Jeanette and I caught on Friday. You wanna go, there’s
info here.
You won’t regret it if you do.

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