Market: Employment figures came in significantly less awful than was expected, and now everyone is sure that a recovery is underway.  If so, this will be the most tepid recovery in the history of mankind, a recovery that in any other time would be called “a depression”, but nonetheless lenders are marking their rates higher as fast as they can go.  Mortgage-backed securities are down 66 bps, after losing 105 yesterday, the third 100+ point drop in just over a week.  That makes rates on Utah mortgages 5.5% on conventionals and FHA (nationally, rates will also be in that range), and nobody in their right mind will tell you he doesn’t think they’re headed higher from here.

Analysis: California is bankrupt.  GM is now owned by the government, which is itself carrying $10 trillion in debt and racking up new debt at $2 trillion a year.  Baby boomers are retiring without any money saved up.  Unemployment is 9.4% and rising.  And yet, traders are pretty sure that stocks are a better bet than bonds.  I think this reflects not great confidence in the stock market; rather, I think traders are losing confidence in the security of bonds.  The stock market is up a little, but we’re still at hilariously low levels looking back 5 years.  Bonds, meanwhile, are still at very low levels, historically speaking.  Heck, last year at this time we were seeing rates in the 6.25% range, and even THAT was very low on a historical scale.

My Realtor friends, from Jimmy Rex to Greg Adamson to Travis Eggett, tell me that this is looking like a good year for the housing market, and that things are already quite a bit better than they were this time last year.  The news is not all bad, and I don’t want to give that impression.  If you’re refinancing, current conditions might be a signal that you’re stuck with the loan you have.  If you’re purchasing, though, this is still the best time to buy that I can remember.

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