Archive for April, 2010

RateWatch ALERT – “Good” Friday

Markets: It’s a good thing it’s a short trading session today, because bonds are getting massacred.  That continues the trend for the week that has seen us lose over 100bps, pushing rates above 5.25% this morning.

Analysis: Good employment data – we actually have seen some hiring in this report – makes it look more and more likely that the bottom of the recession has come and perhaps gone.  Couple that with looming $3 trillion deficits, and that means that bonds are doomed.  This time, there’s no Fed backstopping things.

So, it turns out that I was wrong, and that the end of the Fed purchases of mortgage-backed securities IS going to have a hugely negative impact on interest rates, as the conventional wisdom said it would.

Action: The only thing to do is to move as quickly as possible.  If you are considering a real-estate transaction (the government goosing of the housing market comes to an end on April 30, FYI), move now.  Nobody can lock your rate without an address, so get a contract in place as soon as you can.

Despite my small joke in the headline, I do know that there’s nothing in the housing markets that is anything like as important as the real events being commemorated this weekend, beginning today with Good Friday and culminating with Easter on Sunday morning.  I recall singing at many Easter sunrise services as a teenager, and the power of the commemoration of the Resurrection is with me as I write this.  RateWatch is about how important the market is, but all things considered, nothing that happens in the market is very important at all.  Take some time this weekend to appreciate how insignificant all this really is compared to the things that really matter.  I know I will.