Analysis: It just doesn’t appear that there is any steam in the bond selloff.  The latest rounds of 3-, 5-, and 10-year bonds were met with extremely hot demand, especially from foreign buyers.  China may be scaling back its purchases, but other nations are picking up the slack.  Bonds are still hot.  Nobody is sold on the recovery yet.  Even the looming threat of the cessation of Fed purchases is not having any impact on bond prices.

Action: the phrase “smoke ‘em if you got ‘em” comes to mind.  Everyone knows that with the historical average for interest rates at almost 3 points above our current levels, this can’t last.  There’s no way that 5% can be the new normal, and rates are going to rise.  When, nobody knows (we’re already a year and a half past my prediction, in the interest of full disclosure).  But the incentives to purchase will not be extended again, and rates simply can’t get better than this – we’ve had this range now since Thanksgiving of ’08.  You wait, you’ll regret it.

Thanks to so many of you that supported our seventh annual Twelfth Night Charity Ball last week.  It was a great event, and we think we’ll be supporting both Heart-2-Home and Noah’s for the forseeable future.  Look for us next year a bit later in the year.  We’re looking at March instead of January, but more details on that forthcoming.

Analysis: Tomorrow and the next two days are the real kickers, with the Fed Beige Book tomorrow, and the retail sales and consumer confidence numbers Thursday, followed by a blizzard of numbers Friday, headlined by the Consumer Price Index.  Weak numbers will be good for bonds, strong numbers will be bad.  Good for bonds means good for interest rates.  I realize that means that a bad economy is good for interest rates, and that’s not strictly true, but for rough purposes, that’s where we are.

Actions: Watch for RateWatch on Thursday.  That’s when we’ll know what direction the market is heading.  But if you’re in the market for a short sale, your real deadline for getting an offer in is the end of the month.  Banks are moving glacially on approvals for those.  Remember that you have to be under contract by April to get the first-time or long-time homebuyer credit.

Thursday RateWatch will be interesting, as that is the date of our seventh annual Twelfth Night Charity Ball, and even that we throw to help raise funds for a local charity.  This year it’s the Heart-2-Home Foundation, also known as Utah Home Makeover.  I’ve been on their board for a couple of years, and I really believe in the work they do.  If you go to the website – www.lehilender.com – there’s a link to more info.  If you’re out of state, and many of you are, you can buy a memorial ticket that will send some badly-needed funds to this great organization.  Please take a second.  I’d appreciate it.

Cj