Posts Tagged ‘utah mortgage rates’

Markets: Doing well again today.  Yesterday broke the string of 5 straight days of rising bonds and falling rates (we have never had, in the years I have been following this, 6 green days in a row, so it was expected), and today we’ve continued the trend of the past week.  Rates continue to improve.  We’re very close to some exciting things in mortgage rates.  Stay tuned.

Analysis: Folks, the economy is in the soup.  The things that got us here didn’t happen in four months, and they’re not going away in four months, either. This morning @agentopolis (I love Twitter) put me on to this article about unemployment, predicting that we’ll see it hit roughly 14% in the coming months.  I heard a very convincing analysis last night that put the CURRENT unemployment rate at 20% right now, if you count everyone, which the government numbers do not.

Do not worry about this.  You cannot stop any of it.  Work hard.  Do your job.  If you lose your job, it happens.  Call me and tell me.  I know people.  We’re doing things.  We’ll help you if we can.

Find someone worse off than yourself – this will not be hard – and help them.  There’s no better cure for recession than a lot of people working hard to help each other.  No, let me amend that.  There is no OTHER cure for recession than a lot of people working hard to help each other.  Be part of the solution where you are, and let the markets do what they will.

Have a good weekend.

Cj

Markets: Mortgage-backed securities are down 9bps, which is nothing.  We were down 44 at one point today, but we’ve crawled back on the shocking news that most people think the economy is crap.  Rates are still drifting down slowly.  We’re in the low 5% range on most everything as long as you have good credit.

Analysis: What’s to analyze?  It’s a holiday week.  There are about 6 bond traders working, and all of them are taking off around noon.  There’s no volume to speak of, and the volatility that usually accompanies light volume is being muted because all the economic data are conflicting with themselves.  Yes, folks, “data” is a plural.  No, really.  Look it up.

Cj

P.S. Unless something truly wondrous occurs in the next couple days, you’ll next hear from me on Monday. Tomorrow is my birthday, Thursday is my son Crispin’s 13th birthday, and Saturday is some other birthday that I can’t remember.  Has to do with barbecues, I think.   But as always, if you have questions, I’ll be here.

Market: So, yesterday we were watching the Fed, and as it turned out there was nothing to see. Bonds ended exactly flat at 0. Today we’re up 12bps and sitting on a multiple resistance line (Note: if this doesn’t make any sense to you, don’t worry. It’s not important in the cosmic sense. I just want you to know that I’m paying attention to it, and that I know what it means. Call it outsourcing your worry about rates.)

Analysis: Oil spiked a couple weeks ago because it looked like the recession was bottoming out. Whoops. Demand continues to be bad. Oil is now falling. GDP numbers today showed the economy shrinking by 5.5%, and unemployment numbers were bad again, and now earnings are bad as well, so what we learn from this is that we still have a long way to go. This argues for a flat rate environment.

In fact, we’d be trending strongly downward except that every time the government holds a press conference it talks about changing the face of the financial landscape to such a degree that lenders and banks are forced to hedge their bets. Think of it this way: you’re in Vegas. You want to play a little blackjack. You go to the table and the dealer deals you some cards. Then when you look at them, he takes one back. Apparently you can’t look at both of them. This hand, the dealer says, 23 will be the winning score. Next hand it’s back to 21, except you can’t win if you have clubs. How much would you bet on a game like that?

But that’s precisely what’s happening with the US government. Between President Obama, Ben Bernanke, Secretary Geithner, FHA, FHFA, OFHEO, HUD, and a partridge in a pear tree, every single day (and sometimes twice) the rules for lending, how much you can lend, to whom, under what conditions, are changing. If you were a bank, how much would you bet on a game like that?

If it weren’t so catastrophic to so many people, it would be actually kind of fun, like trying to do a puzzle using a funhouse mirror. At least I can say my job isn’t dull.

Cj

Chris Jones
City 1st Mortgage Services, Utah’s Mortgage Lender of Choice (and nearly everywhere else)
801-310-3407

This is one of the reasons that I don’t just slavishly follow the recommendations from the marketwatchers I subscribe to – nor should you slavishly follow mine.

Earlier today the bond market opened down 41 bps, then reversed to even, then lost 16 more bps and we got all sorts of “alert to lock” warnings.  Currently, the market is up 53 bps and the afternoon rally is well and truly under way.  I can’t say I expected this, but I’m glad of it.  And very glad we ignored the warnings this morning.

Inflation was tame this morning (and more than tame – we had deflationary pressure) and that is helping a lot.

For now, rates are moving the right direction, and slowly, slowly, we are climbing back out of the hole of two weeks ago.  Keep your fingers crossed, and for Heaven’s sake, make sure I have enough information on your loan that I can lock if we hit the rate you want.  Do not get caught short on this.