Posts Tagged ‘utah mortgage rates’

RateWatch – About Face, Forward March

Market: Apparently the world bond markets like it when I go out of town, because we got a sharp rally Thursday, followed it with a solid day Friday, and we’re up another 70 bps this morning.  For those just joining us, that means rates are falling.  We’ve not reached the levels we were at two weeks ago, but we pegged back all of the loss since.  That makes the 30-year at about 5.25% for a conventional and fairly similar for an FHA.  AS ALWAYS, your specific situation will make those numbers rise or fall.

Analysis: Well, not so fast.  The “recovery” (which those of you that follow us closely know we have never believed in) has not been overly juicy, and today’s manufacturing numbers were even worse than forecast.  The Obama Administration continues to blame the economy they inherited for the bad employment numbers we’re seeing, and still defend the stimulus package as necessary to keep things from getting worse.  I’m not sold on that, but I am a pragmatist – this is what we have, so let’s deal with it.  I don’t expect that the economy will roar back – that’s some time off, and very tenuous at best – but I also don’t think things are going to get (visibly) much worse in the near future.  We should be okay through the summer.

Assuming we have summer.  Utah is basically stuck in April.

P.S. For those that like to see the little guy make good, I address you to Zillow’s Mortgages Unzipped blog, where they have a new columnist.  You might know the fellow.

RateWatch – Glimmer of Hope?

Market: Still a drift downwards, but that drift has abated some and there appears not to be any strong force pushing bonds lower. The S&P continues to be unable to break through the 944 level, and there is bad economic news on the way, according to many sources. Add Fed buying to the mix, and we could see rates move a bit lower over the next month or so.

Analysis: Comment out of John Hancock is that bad economic news coupled with the expected Fed announcement on June 23rd of increased Fed buying of bonds will cause rates on mortgages to move lower in the 3rd quarter. Here’s hoping. It is true that the subprime loan resets are mostly behind us now, which is causing the market to stabilize, but it is also true that the resets in Option ARMs are mostly still ahead of us, and those have a much larger capital volume than what we’ve gone through so far. Some are predicting another two yeras before the clouds begin to break in financial markets.

Personally, I think if you are prepared you shall not fear. Let us all get prepared then, shall we?

RateWatch – Same Stuff, Different Day

Market: Employment figures came in significantly less awful than was expected, and now everyone is sure that a recovery is underway.  If so, this will be the most tepid recovery in the history of mankind, a recovery that in any other time would be called “a depression”, but nonetheless lenders are marking their rates higher as fast as they can go.  Mortgage-backed securities are down 66 bps, after losing 105 yesterday, the third 100+ point drop in just over a week.  That makes rates on Utah mortgages 5.5% on conventionals and FHA (nationally, rates will also be in that range), and nobody in their right mind will tell you he doesn’t think they’re headed higher from here.

Analysis: California is bankrupt.  GM is now owned by the government, which is itself carrying $10 trillion in debt and racking up new debt at $2 trillion a year.  Baby boomers are retiring without any money saved up.  Unemployment is 9.4% and rising.  And yet, traders are pretty sure that stocks are a better bet than bonds.  I think this reflects not great confidence in the stock market; rather, I think traders are losing confidence in the security of bonds.  The stock market is up a little, but we’re still at hilariously low levels looking back 5 years.  Bonds, meanwhile, are still at very low levels, historically speaking.  Heck, last year at this time we were seeing rates in the 6.25% range, and even THAT was very low on a historical scale.

My Realtor friends, from Jimmy Rex to Greg Adamson to Travis Eggett, tell me that this is looking like a good year for the housing market, and that things are already quite a bit better than they were this time last year.  The news is not all bad, and I don’t want to give that impression.  If you’re refinancing, current conditions might be a signal that you’re stuck with the loan you have.  If you’re purchasing, though, this is still the best time to buy that I can remember.

RateWatch – The Slide Continues

Markets: Yesterday, a 150-point drop.  Today, a 40-point drop already.  That roughly translates to a rise in rates of .375% to .5% over the last day and a half.

Analysis: China had good manufacturing data, which, let me emphasize, they make up, for three months in a row, and that has signaled the world markets that a global recovery is under way!  I cannot tell you how silly this is. Nevertheless, money is flowing out of bond markets in a great flood, and that is driving rates higher.  In this case, dramatically higher.  There will be bad economic data ahead, and that will give us periodic moves back in the right direction, but the overall trend is for rates to go higher and to stay there.  At some point the government’s pouring of a mythical $2 trillion into the economy will cause inflation to explode, and rates will skyrocket.  Just FYI.  Personally, I thought that would be next year, but I’ve been wrong before.

This does not mean that there are no good deals out there.  There are.  Rates are still exceptionally attractive – this time last year, they were .5% higher, and in late summer last year they were 1% more than current levels, so it isn’t as if we’re back in the late 1970′s, at all.  But it would be a very good idea to get a personal checkup from your mortgage guy, to see where you are.

Cj

Chris Jones
City 1st Mortgage Services, the Utah Mortgage Lender of Choice

Real Estate Top Ten and Jimmy’s Steal of the Week!

From Jimmy Rex, Realtor Extraordinaire:
These are all bank approved prices of foreclosures, no waiting to see if the bank accepts the offer!!!  All are in average to above average condition as well and all were built in the past 5 years!
10 best buys- May 27 2009
1. North east Lehi 1600 sq ft, Originally sold for $225k- bank approved price for $158k
2. North west Orem, 2778 sq ft, exact same model sold in Dec 2008 for $205k, bank approved price of $165,000
3. North East Eagle Mtn, 3030 sq ft townhouse, brand new, bank approved at $180,000, that’s $60 per sq ft
4. Ivory Ridge, Lehi, 2397 sq ft townhouse, same exact model under contract right now for $245k, bank approved at $185,000
5. South west Saratoga, 3900 sq ft, bank approved price $245,000, similar house four houses down sold last June for $370,000
6. North East Eagle mtn, 5894 sq ft, House on same street sold last August for $340k, bank approved $284,000
7. South West Bluffdale, 5000+ sq ft, was once under contract for $700k, bank approved price $349,000
8. South west Herriman, 6800+ sq ft, house 1000 sq ft smaller on street sold for $522,000 within last year, bank approved price of $350,000-This is the steal of the week!!!!!!
9. North East Provo, 6200 + sq ft, house on same street only 600 sq ft bigger currently listed at $995,000, bank approved price $425,000!
10. Pepperwood house, 6600 sq ft, half acre, bank approved price of $579,000
11. Southwest Riverton, 6700+ sq ft, fully decked out, originally appraised for $1.8 million, bank approved price of $975,000
Call to get more info on these or other great properties! These are all bank approved prices of foreclosures, no waiting to see if the bank accepts the offer!!!
I thought this was a great idea.  If you’re hunting a Utah home and a Utah mortgage, stay with us – I’ll be bringing you Jimmy’s Top Ten every week.