Posts Tagged ‘utah mortgage rates’

Two years ago, I decided that I was tired of working for the broker I was with, tired of the screwups of others at that company making it hard for me to do business the right way, tired of making a decent living but having no pride in my work.  Two years ago I opened my own brokerage, a one-man shop, right on Main Street.

Two years ago, the real estate market was flourishing, there were tens of thousands of loan officers actively plying their trade, and dozens of companies ready to welcome me with open arms.  There were 600 different lenders I could work with, and Mortgage Originator magazine had 110 pages every month.

Two years ago nobody knew that the market would collapse, credit dry up, property values decline 25%.  Two years ago nobody could have forecast the demise of GM and Chrysler, deficits of $1.8 trillion, the number of big-bank lenders declining from 25 to 4.  Nobody knew that if you weren’t a big shop, with FHA loan capability, backstopped by large correspondent lines, you were already dead.

In terms of the business, almost everything I thought was true, wasn’t.

But two years ago I knew that I wanted to be on Main Street in Lehi.  I knew I wanted to work in a small office, with people I hired myself, on a busy but – let’s face it – sleepy two-lane street less than a mile from my home.  I knew that I wanted to become part of the community, to put roots there, to learn the names and faces of everyone for two blocks in either direction.  I knew I wanted this place to be my home, and that I wanted desperately for my business to contribute something to the health and vitality of the community around it.  I wanted people to know me and to know they could trust me.  And I wanted to know myself.  And I wanted to trust myself.  And I believed that this place was the place it could happen.

Almost everything I thought I knew about the place I was, and the reason I was there, was absolutely true.

Two years ago, the Chair of the Chamber of Commerce, the lady that I chose as my Vice-Chair and who succeeded me as Chair, presided at the grand opening of my brokerage on Main Street.  Kris Belcher, who wasn’t an author then, but who was, and is, one of the toughest, most genuine, smartest and finest people on earth, made a short speech in honor of the occasion.  She said one thing that day that I won’t ever forget as long as I live.

She said we would go through hard times, but that we had been through them before, and we would always come out right, because, she said, “the Chris Jones Group has the fighting spirit.”

Two years ago, that was true.

By God, it still is.

Analysis: Folks, it just isn’t pretty out there.  Bill Gross of PIMCO says the US is in some danger of losing its AAA bond status, the Obama Administration appears to be valuing labor contracts over the demands of Chrysler and GM bond holders, the government is offering record amounts of Treasury debt in an effort to keep spending, and the deficit is $1.8 trillion.  The geniuses at the Fed and Treasury thought that they could game the markets, get rates where they want them just by saying “boo” (and spending a $ trillion or so).  But that doesn’t work, fellas.  The market is bigger than that.  It’s bigger than you.  It will go where it likes and you can’t stop it.

So here is a bunch of random stuff, because in many ways, this week has kicked my lily-white butt, and I’m tired.

Government-sponsored mortgage programs?  Not working.  Here’s a really good commentary on that from Henry Blodgett: http://tinyurl.com/orgjw2 along with good ideas on what lenders need to do instead.  But won’t.  Utah mortgages are the same as everyone else’s in this respect.  I continue to recommend with all the force I can – do business locally, with local people, as much as humanly possible.  Even in something as grand and mysterious as the real estate market, this is absolutely critical.  Give the guy on Main Street the same shot you give the big multi-national bank.  He’ll surprise you, this I promise.

Your weekend’s soundtrack is provided by Stacey Kent, especially her brilliant Breakfast on the Morning Tram album.  You’re welcome in advance.

The Nuggets are better than the Lakers. This is really not disputable.  I believe the Cavaliers are better than the Magic, too, but I wouldn’t be willing to state it under oath.

Twitter is the single most underutilized market research tool in the history of the world.  Follow me for a day and I’ll show you.

FriendFeed might be even better, for businesses.  Put a group together.

Knowing Bryan Pope has been terrible for my daily work ethic and phenomenal for my business creativity.  Actually, I lie about that first part – Bryan yesterday gave me an idea that helped both things so much that I’ve already got more done today than the previous three days put together, and made that work far, far more effective than it has been before.  Get to know this guy.  I mean it.

The Provo Daily Herald newspaper needs serious, immediate, direct intervention.  I write for them, and I can tell you that if they learned how to aggregate local news feeds they could make money.  A lot of money.  They show no real signs of wanting to do this.  I understand this to be typical of most news organizations.  Guys, stop thinking of news as something you provide to people and start thinking about it as something you collect and report.  You have great collection mechanisms, but you will never be able to tell me what I want to know better than I can tell you what I want to know.  When you get this, you’ll start profiting again.

Within the next month, you’ll hear something about the Main Street Group from somewhere other than this blog.  It’s that great an idea, and that powerful a group of people.

Breaking News: FHA says they are drafting a program to allow the $8000 tax credit to be used as a down payment on FHA loans. Currently this cannot be done. For some getting a Utah mortgage (and California, and other states), that could shortly mean $14,000 down to buy certain homes. Details to be released in the next week or so. Watch this space for more.

Markets: Retail sales came in weak today, and last month’s number was revised downward, so stocks are losing ground, and bonds are moving higher. We have now gained back everything we lost last week, though we aren’t quite back to where we were the week before. Up and down in the same range is a sign of a market bottom. Be forewarned.

Analysis: Heard on Twitter: “Silently cheering for bad economic news is what you do if you’re looking for lower mortgage rates.” @tylerosby It’s kind of sad, but it certainly is true. I try not to hope for bad news, but when it comes, I don’t feel as bad as I otherwise might. These days, though, I genuinely hope that the economy improves, because although there is a “benefit” to mortgage refinancers and purchasers (and, let’s face it, to me) from bad news causing rates to drop, the REAL benefit to us would be if the economy revived and people started working and earning again. Remember, you make a whale of a lot more money having a decent job than you do shaving .25% off your mortgage rate. Any raise you might get would dwarf the money you’d save from that tiny a decrease in your rate.

I think we have the signs of a rate bottom here. We’ve been bouncing around in this general range for over a month now. Everything points to rates moving higher from here.

Currently, we’re sitting between 4.75% and 5%, depending on the loan and the program.

I do, seriously, love Twitter.

One of the things I love about it is the ability to monitor the conversation about my company, and respond quickly when someone has a problem.  Okay, not MY company, because frankly, nobody on Twitter is talking about us.  But my industry, yes.  There is a LOT of complaining going on about mortgage people, companies, brokers, all of that.

I didn’t really have any idea.  Most of the time when people come to me they’re not complaining.  Afraid, yes.  Worried that things are bad and not going to get better.  But they don’t come into my office and say “you never explain anything, your service sucks, and the entire mortgage process makes me feel faintly nauseous.”

This is, however, how they feel.  And I didn’t know it.

I had a short back-and-forth with @mototom (Tom Parker), in which he said, in part, “Same old — daily auto-dialer calls with pre-recorded voicemail messages. Crap follow-up once you’re working with them.”  And this was worse: “But it may be impossible to humanize it. No matter what, doesn’t it still come down to numbers plugged into a machine?”

Oh.  My.

Now I admit in this space all the time that I am not perfect.  I am far from as disciplined as I would like to be, and that lack of discipline shows up most often in communication, where I don’t do as well as I should at keeping my clients apprised of what is going on.  But I hope – I pray – that my clients don’t feel that they’re not human to us.

I guess I had better ask.

No, Tom, you are not a couple numbers plugged into a machine.  You should not be treated that way.  You should never feel that way at all, ever, at any point in the process.  That you do feel that way is a terrible indictment of mortgage brokers and loan officers, and on behalf of the entire industry, let me offer you a sincere apology, and my personal commitment to do things better in the future.

So that even if we never work together, your willingness to speak out will have helped someone.